During an exclusive interview, Kadan Stadelmann, CTO of non-custodial wallet and atomic swap DEX platform Komodo, shared his insights on the upcoming Bitcoin halving and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.
The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving is almost here, and all eyes are on the flagship cryptocurrency. This event, which will cut block rewards in half, will directly affect the supply and availability of Bitcoin.
There are divided opinions among investors and market observers on the potential impact of the halving on Bitcoin’s future trajectory. While some believe it will follow past trends, others argue that this market cycle is different.
Stadelmann, who has been leading Komodo since 2016, believes that each Bitcoin halving is significant as it leads to a supply shock due to the reduction in new BTC mined per block. This has historically sparked new bull market cycles and generated optimism within the crypto community. As a result, there has been an increase in mainstream media coverage and greater interest from both retail and institutional investors.
However, there are also risks to consider, such as the potential impact on miners since the costs per token will double. Stadelmann acknowledges this possibility but believes that if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, it should offset some of the potential losses. He also predicts that we will see more large-scale corporate enterprises begin to mine Bitcoin.
Institutional demand has been touted as a key factor in sparking the 2024 bull run. Stadelmann believes that there is enough demand to create a supply shock, citing the massive inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs and the recent purchases made by MicroStrategy.
When asked about the timing of this demand, Stadelmann notes that retail demand may be lagging behind institutional demand in the current market cycle. However, he also suggests that some retail investors may be purchasing Bitcoin indirectly through spot Bitcoin ETFs rather than through crypto exchanges.
Overall, Stadelmann believes that the halving will inspire market confidence for two reasons. Firstly, it presents a counter-narrative to fiat currency, as Bitcoin becomes more deflationary every four years while fiat currency becomes more inflationary. Secondly, the success of Bitcoin typically drives the entire crypto market, leading to increased media attention and interest in other cryptocurrencies.
While it is difficult to predict which altcoin will benefit the most from the halving, Stadelmann believes that the majority of cryptocurrencies will see an increase in value during the second half of 2024 and early 2025. He advises investors to consider factors such as tokenomics, technology, and use cases when deciding which cryptocurrency to buy.
In terms of price predictions, Stadelmann expects Bitcoin to trade sideways for three months after the halving due to miner sell-offs. However, he predicts that the historical post-halving trend will repeat itself this cycle, resulting in a longer-term price increase. He is bullish on the mid to long-term future of Bitcoin and believes it could reach $100k by the end of the year, with a market-wide rally for most altcoins following shortly after.
In the immediate future, the price of Bitcoin is highly volatile leading up to the halving. However, Stadelmann notes that this has been the norm in previous halvings, and the market tends to quickly wake up after a period of dormancy or bearishness.
Overall, Stadelmann remains bullish on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, citing the current adoption among institutional investors and the proliferation of spot Bitcoin ETFs. He encourages readers to follow their news on Google News.