Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe there is a 75% chance of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved in the US market this year. According to the experts, the SEC has very little wiggle room now and denying further spot ETFs would be politically untenable. This is because the SEC has suffered a double loss after Grayscale’s win; a legal setback and a PR blow which impacts the setting of narratives and changing of minds.
Balchunas shared a post on X expressing the analysts’ prediction for when the SEC could approve the ETF, noting that the odds of it happening in 2023 are 75%, and 95% by the end of next year.
Seyffart noted that the SEC would have a hard time denying the ETF application filed by crypto asset management firm Hashdex, which provides a unique and novel approach for spot Bitcoin exposure.
Although the SEC could delay upcoming ETF decisions, or deny them, the analysts believe that the regulator will find it difficult to deny the Hashdex ETF. The SEC recently delayed a decision on the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF proposal and deadlines for filings from BlackRock, Fidelity and others are on the horizon.
